Demographic Trends in India: Population, Theories, Policy and the Demographic Dividend for RBI Grade B ESI
Last updated: 2026-11-11 · MockMentor
"Demographic Trends" is part of the Social Structure in India unit of the RBI Grade B Phase 2 Economic and Social Issues (ESI) syllabus. India is now the world's most populous country, its fertility has fallen below replacement level, and it has a large young workforce that will start ageing within a few decades. Questions on the demographic dividend, the sex ratio, population policy and the link between population and development are common in descriptive papers.
In one line: India's population is still growing, but more slowly; fertility has fallen below replacement level, and the window to use its large working-age population for faster growth will close in about three decades.
Basic concepts
- Demography: the scientific study of human populations: their size, structure, distribution and change through births, deaths and migration.
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR): the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime at current age-specific birth rates. A TFR of about 2.1 is the replacement level, at which a population replaces itself over time.
- Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and Crude Death Rate (CDR): births and deaths per 1,000 people in a year.
- Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): deaths of infants under one year per 1,000 live births.
- Sex ratio: the number of females per 1,000 males. The sex ratio at birth is the number of girls born per 1,000 boys.
- Dependency ratio: the number of children (0 to 14) and older people (65 and above) per 100 people of working age (15 to 64).
- Demographic dividend: the potential for faster growth when the share of the working-age population is high and they are productively employed.
Why in News?
- The Population Enumeration phase of Census 2027 is scheduled for 9 to 28 February 2027, after the House Listing phase from April to September 2026. It is India's first digital census, includes self-enumeration, and will record caste for the first time since 1931.
- The Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023 put India's TFR at 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1, with Bihar the highest at 2.8 and Delhi the lowest at 1.2. The IMR fell to 25 and the sex ratio at birth was 917 for 2021-23.
- The United Nations estimated India's population at about 146 crore in 2025, the largest in the world, and projected that it will peak at around 170 crore in about four decades before declining.
Size and growth
India's population was about 36 crore in 1951 and 121 crore in the Census of 2011. Since no census has been held since 2011, current figures come from projections and sample surveys.
Phases of population growth
| Phase | Period | Features |
|---|---|---|
| Stagnant population | 1901 to 1921 | High birth and death rates; famines and epidemics such as the influenza pandemic of 1918; 1921 is called the "Great Divide", after which population grew steadily |
| Steady growth | 1921 to 1951 | Death rates fell with better sanitation and health; birth rates stayed high |
| Rapid growth (population explosion) | 1951 to 1981 | Death rates fell sharply after Independence while birth rates stayed high; annual growth above 2% |
| High growth with signs of slowing | 1981 to 2011 | Birth rates began to fall; the growth rate declined from about 2.2% a year in the 1980s to about 1.6% in 2001-2011 |
| Slowing growth | 2011 onwards | TFR has fallen below replacement level; growth continues because of the large number of young people entering childbearing age (population momentum) |
Population structure
Age structure
| Age group | Share of population (2025, UN estimate) |
|---|---|
| 0 to 14 years | About 24% |
| 15 to 64 years (working age) | About 68% |
| 65 years and above | About 7% |
The share of children is falling and that of older people is rising. India's median age is under 30, much lower than China's or Japan's.
Sex composition
The sex ratio of India's population was 943 females per 1,000 males in Census 2011, up from 933 in 2001. The National Family Health Survey 2019-21 (NFHS-5) found a sex ratio of 1,020 for its surveyed population, though this reflects the household population and male migration. The sex ratio at birth, a better measure of gender bias, remains below the natural level of about 950, at 917 in 2021-23 according to the SRS.
Other compositions (Census 2011)
| Aspect | Detail |
|---|---|
| Rural-urban | 68.8% rural and 31.2% urban |
| Literacy | 74.0% (male 82.1%, female 65.5%); Kerala the highest and Bihar the lowest |
| Religion | Hindus 79.8%, Muslims 14.2%, Christians 2.3%, Sikhs 1.7% |
| Workers | 39.8% of the population were workers |
Theories of population
Malthusian theory
Thomas Robert Malthus, in "An Essay on the Principle of Population" (1798), argued that population grows in geometric progression (1, 2, 4, 8) while food supply grows in arithmetic progression (1, 2, 3, 4). So population would outrun food unless checked. He described "positive checks" (famine, disease, war) that raise death rates and "preventive checks" (late marriage, moral restraint) that lower birth rates.
Criticism: technological progress, especially the Green Revolution, raised food output far faster than Malthus expected, and birth rates fell as incomes rose. But his concern about the strain of population on resources remains relevant to water, land and climate.
Neo-Malthusian theory
Neo-Malthusians accepted Malthus's concern but rejected moral restraint as the only solution. They supported birth control and family planning to slow population growth. Their ideas influenced population programmes in many developing countries, including India's early family planning efforts.
Demographic transition theory
This theory, based on the experience of Europe, describes how countries move from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as they develop.
| Stage | Birth rate | Death rate | Population growth | Example |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. High stationary | High | High | Slow | Pre-industrial societies; India before 1921 |
| 2. Early expanding | High | Falling sharply | Rapid | India from 1921 to about 1981 |
| 3. Late expanding | Falling | Low | Slowing | India from the 1980s to the 2010s |
| 4. Low stationary | Low | Low | Stable | Most developed countries |
| 5. Declining (added later) | Very low | Low | Falling | Japan, Italy, South Korea |
India is moving from stage 3 to stage 4, with wide differences among states: southern states and Delhi are already at very low fertility, while Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh are still in late stage 3.
Criticism: the theory was drawn from Europe and does not predict when each stage will occur. In developing countries, death rates fell much faster (because of imported medicine) than they did in Europe, causing rapid population growth.
Population and economic development
| Positive effects | Negative effects |
|---|---|
| A large labour force and domestic market | Pressure on land, water, food and housing |
| Economies of scale and a large consumer base | High dependency ratio in the early stages |
| A young, adaptable workforce | Unemployment and underemployment if jobs are scarce |
| Innovation from a large pool of talent | Lower savings and investment per person |
| Demographic dividend if well used | Strain on schools, hospitals and infrastructure |
Economist Julian Simon argued that people are the "ultimate resource" because they create ideas. Others point to the environmental limits of a large population. The modern view is that population is neither a burden nor an asset by itself: what matters is investment in people's health, education and skills, and the creation of jobs.
India's population policy
| Year | Step |
|---|---|
| 1952 | India became the first country to launch a national family planning programme |
| 1976 | National Population Policy statement; the Emergency period saw coercive sterilisation, which set back the programme |
| 1977 | The programme was renamed "family welfare" and became voluntary |
| 1994 | International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo) shifted the world's focus from targets to reproductive health and rights |
| 1996 | India adopted a target-free approach |
| 2000 | National Population Policy (NPP) 2000 |
| 2005 onwards | National Rural Health Mission (later National Health Mission) with Janani Suraksha Yojana for institutional deliveries |
| 2016 | Mission Parivar Vikas for high-fertility districts |
National Population Policy 2000
| Objective | Target |
|---|---|
| Immediate | Meet the unmet need for contraception, health infrastructure and personnel |
| Medium term | Bring the TFR to replacement level (2.1) by 2010 |
| Long term | A stable population by 2045, consistent with sustainable development |
It also aimed to make school education free and compulsory up to age 14, cut infant mortality below 30 per 1,000, raise the age of marriage for girls (to 18 at least, preferably 20), and achieve universal immunisation. The National Commission on Population, chaired by the Prime Minister, was set up to oversee it. The TFR target was reached in 2020-21, about a decade late, according to NFHS-5 (2.0).
Current debates
- Some states have proposed two-child norms for local elections or government jobs; critics argue that such rules penalise the poor and women and are not needed when fertility is already falling.
- Some southern states, with low fertility, worry about losing seats in Parliament after delimitation based on the next census, and about the 16th Finance Commission's use of population in sharing taxes.
- Concern has shifted from population growth to ageing in low-fertility states.
Demographic dividend
What it means
When fertility falls, the share of children declines before the share of older people rises, so for a few decades the working-age share is at its peak. If these working-age people are healthy, skilled and employed, the economy can grow faster, because there are more earners and savers for each dependant. East Asian economies such as South Korea and China gained a large dividend from the 1970s to the 2000s.
India's window
India's working-age share is about 68% and is expected to peak around the late 2030s or 2040s. The window is expected to stay open until around 2055 to 2056, but it differs by state: Kerala and Tamil Nadu are already ageing, while Bihar and Uttar Pradesh will have growing working-age populations for longer.
Advantages
- A larger labour force and higher output.
- Higher saving and investment as the dependency ratio falls.
- A large market and consumer demand.
- A supply of workers for an ageing world, through migration and remote services.
Challenges
- Creating enough jobs for about 1 crore new entrants to the working-age population each year.
- Low female labour force participation.
- Poor learning outcomes and low skills.
- High child malnutrition, which reduces health and productivity in adulthood.
- Most workers in the informal sector with low productivity.
- Regional mismatch: the young population is growing most in states with the fewest jobs.
What needs to be done
- Invest in health and nutrition from early childhood.
- Improve school learning and link education with skills.
- Create jobs in labour-intensive manufacturing, construction and services.
- Bring more women into the workforce.
- Support migration from labour-surplus to labour-short states with portable benefits.
- Build social security for old age now, before ageing accelerates.
Ageing
India had about 15 crore people aged 60 and above in 2022, about 10.5% of the population, and this share is projected to rise to about 20% by 2050, according to the India Ageing Report 2023 of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Older people are more often women, widowed, poor and living in rural areas. The main needs are pensions (the Indira Gandhi National Old Age Pension Scheme, Atal Pension Yojana), health care (the extension of Ayushman Bharat PM-JAY to everyone aged 70 and above in 2024), and protection under the Maintenance and Welfare of Parents and Senior Citizens Act, 2007.
Skewed sex ratio
Reasons for a low sex ratio at birth
- Son preference, rooted in patrilineal inheritance, old-age support and dowry.
- Sex-selective abortion, made easier by ultrasound technology.
- Neglect of girls in nutrition and health care, which raises their mortality.
- Lower status of women in society.
Effects
- Fewer women in the population, leading to bride shortages, trafficking and violence against women in some regions.
- Reinforcement of gender inequality.
Measures
- The Pre-Conception and Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques (PCPNDT) Act, 1994, which bans sex determination.
- Beti Bachao Beti Padhao (2015), which began in districts with the lowest child sex ratios.
- Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana, a savings scheme for girls.
- Awareness campaigns and stricter monitoring of ultrasound clinics.
Way forward
- Use Census 2027 data for better planning of jobs, health, education and cities.
- Focus on human capital to make the most of the demographic dividend.
- Prepare for ageing with pensions, long-term care and health insurance.
- Keep reducing gender bias through education, women's economic empowerment and enforcement of laws.
- Plan for internal migration as the young population of the north moves to jobs in the south and west.
Possible exam and interview questions
- Explain the theory of demographic transition. Which stage is India in, and how do states differ? (420 words)
- "India's demographic dividend can become a demographic disaster." Critically examine, and suggest what India must do to reap the dividend. (620 words)
- What were the objectives of the National Population Policy 2000? How far have they been achieved?
- Why is the sex ratio at birth low in India, and what measures have been taken to improve it?
- Interview: Now that India's fertility is below replacement level, should it worry about ageing rather than population growth?
Related reading: urbanisation and migration, gender issues, and employment generation.
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